The Gulf Crisis – Connecting the Dots?

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So. Are you as confused as me about what the heck is going on at the moment? From Manchester, through London, to Syria, Qatar and Iran, to Trump and Russia? How come it all seems to be coming back to the Persian Gulf? And is all of it, any of it related?

Well, I have speculated a bit, in some commentary on another post. But then, I do some Google doodling. And I come up with this article about Qatar’s domination of natural gas production in the Persian Gulf. And how this is unsettling everyone from Saudi Arabia to Russia. Cutting across existing political, ethnic and religious bonds and alliances.

But where does Trump fit in? Could it have anything to do with the Trump Organization’s brokering in 2016/2017 of the sale of the Russian state oil trading agency, Rosneft, to Qatar? Was this just business? Or was this part of a move (either approved by or connived in by the then US government) to double-smack Russia and Iran? Get in on this deal. Mess it around. Or just find out what was going on. Mess with Russia and its oil. Mess with Qatar, because of its involvement with Iran in the gas field deal.

Or, is it something more venal? The Trump Organization owes Russia for the Rosneft deal. Or is embarrassed by it. Ditto Qatar. Trump muddies the water. A lot. By using US levers of diplomacy and power to shake things up for Russia and Qatar?

Quite aside from Qatar’s gas field deal with Iran (and remember, Russia is proving to be a friend to both Syria and Iran; so, it’s not a complete delve into the land of fantasy to see a Syria-Iran-Russia-Qatar link), could the gas field deal, added to the Rosneft deal, be a step too far for Qatar domination of oil and natural gas for some folks to put up with?

Is this why no-one is mentioning Rosneft when making accusations about Trump-Russia collusion in Washington? That everyone knew about the collusion. It was sanctioned as part of something bigger. Ended up with Russia doing some hacking for Trump on the side. Russian hacking which may now include stirring the Qatar pot with alleged Russian hacking of Qatar state news. All of which has got completely out of control, because no-one thought Trump would become US President.

Are the alleged ISIS attacks in Great Britain connected? Certainly, there has been an increase in such attacks. It is more than co-incidental that this is all happening at the same time. Beyond that. I do not know. Certainly, there is a large Muslim community in the UK. For sure, people are concerned that elements are radicalized. Perhaps on both sides of the Sunni-Shia divide. But, if one were sending a message. Like, keep your heads down, and watch your backs. It would be less about where ‘one’ stood on Muslim matters. And more to do with the covert involvement of the British government in matters relating to the Middle East (perhaps on all sides), and the financing of those ‘matters’ by the City of London.

Or could it be to do with the British General Election? Where the two major parties stand on the Middle East? Which party is likely to ‘benefit’ as a consequence of jihadist attacks in the days leading up to that election? Which of the competing elements in this current high-stakes crisis in the Middle East is likely to benefit how as a consequence of which major British political party is in control of the levers of British government power, and holding sway over the City of London, after the British General Election? Even the extent to which the City of London may be affected by the Brexit negotiations, in turn affected by which political party wins the British General Election? Suddenly, the fictional movie treatment I came up with recently doesn’t seem so far-fetched.

Oh. And here’s something else to throw into the pot. Going back to before the Obama-Iran nuclear deal, when Israel was making threatening noises about bombing Iran’s nuclear sites. Saudi Arabia secretly gave Israel permission to fly over its territory, solely for the purposes of bombing Iran. But then again, all is not what it seems with relations between Israel and the likes of Saudi Arabia, whose fear of Iran is greater than its perceived hatred of Israel. In fact, for once, Trump may be speaking sooth. Maybe he was setting up something with his recent trip to Saudi Arabia, Israel and NATO?

Two things are reasonably certain: (1) Things will now move quickly; Iran isn’t going to stand by idly. (2) As will all things of this potential magnitude and complexity, we are almost certainly not going to know anything even approaching the true story until records are declassified in about fifty years’ time. If then …

(Facebook comments here.)

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Published in: on June 8, 2017 at 8:36 am  Leave a Comment  

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